Hotel CEOs may have been a little premature in saying the K-shaped economy was a thing of the past.
The summer 2026 travel season is shaping up as a tale of two tourists: those priced out entirely, and those who've decided the vacation is non-negotiable — and are opening their wallets accordingly.
Deloitte's 2026 Summer Travel Survey, which polled 4,003 Americans early last month, found that just 45% of U.S. travelers plan to take a summer vacation with a stay in paid lodging, the lowest share in six years. Costs are the culprit: 35% of non-travelers say they simply can't afford it, while 32% cite travel being too expensive right now.
But for the travelers who are going? Sticker shock isn't slowing them down. Surveyed Americans expect to spend an average of $4,069 on their longest summer trip — a 17% jump from last year. About 1 in 4 travelers plan to significantly raise trip budgets, up five percentage points from 2025, with 38% of that group attributing the increase specifically to higher airline and lodging prices.
The luxury segment is well-positioned in this environment. Higher-income travelers are pivoting toward full-service hotels (59% in 2026 vs. 54% last year) and destination resorts (23% vs. 14%) for their marquee trips, while interest in private rentals dips slightly. Twenty-eight percent of summer travelers plan luxury stays at some point in 2026, with millennials and Gen Z leading intent at 40% and 38%, respectively.
Internationally, Europe remains the clear frontrunner at 45% of planned international trips, while Canada picks up share within North America. Luxury travelers are among the groups most likely to cross an ocean, with 43% planning international marquee trips.
On the air side, the front of the plane is holding. Travelers are purchasing more first class or business class fares (up four percentage points year-over-year) and tickets with upgrades (up six percentage points). Price, meanwhile, has faded slightly as the primary airline selection driver — falling from 65% to 60% — while reliability has risen sharply, from 44% to 51%.
"Amid pricing pressures, those who are packing their bags this summer intend to spend, indicating that many are putting a premium on experiences," Kate Ferrara, vice chair and U.S. transportation, hospitality and services sector leader at Deloitte, said in prepared remarks. "Providers can capitalize on this opportunity by focusing on enhancing the travel experience through upgrades and partner offerings. Those who are traveling have already decided it's worth the investment, so leaning into the emotional connection to enhance vacation's value could be a differentiator this summer."
Generationally, millennials are this summer's power brokers, representing nearly a third (31%) of the traveling public. High-earning millennials — those with household income above $200,000 — are particularly formidable: they're planning an average of 3.73 trips with a marquee trip budget of $6,559, more than 67% above the overall average. More than half plan luxury stays this year.
Tech is reshaping how younger travelers plan those trips. Generative AI adoption in travel research more than doubled year-over-year, with 25% of travelers now using the tool compared to 15% in 2025. Millennials are the biggest users at 36%. And one-third of all travelers (34%) plan to work during their longest summer trip — the so-called laptop luggers — up sharply from 23% last year. Millennials again lead that pack at 57%.
"New generations are shifting the leisure travel landscape," added Eileen Crowley, U.S. transportation, hospitality and services leader at Deloitte. "Whether it's turning to tech for itinerary planning or leaning into luxury bookings, these are trends the industry can tap into as they look to capture and build loyalty with younger travelers. Brands looking to capture these younger travelers' attention should consider what's driving these up-and-coming travelers to return year after year."
One soft note for advisors: booking progress is lagging behind 2025 levels. Just 35% of marquee trips are fully booked, down from 39% last year, with middle-income households showing the widest gap. That hesitancy, Deloitte notes, may reflect price-wariness rather than waning intent — which means there's still runway for advisors to convert undecided travelers into committed ones.
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