Destinations that prepare for disruption before it arrives recover up to 1.5 times faster than those that wait, according to a new report from Tourise and Oxford Economics analyzing 85 major crises over the past two decades.
The report, "Resilience in a World that Doesn't Reset: Redesigning Tourism for an Era of Permanent Disruption," released August 17, argues that in a global tourism landscape defined by continuous shocks, resilience is built in the actions destinations take before a crisis hits rather than in the response afterward.
"In a world that does not reset between crises, disruption is a constant feature of the global tourism landscape," said His Excellency Ahmed Al-Khateeb, minister of tourism of Saudi Arabia and chairman of Tourise. "The real test for destinations measures how they prepare for volatility, protect traveler confidence, and maintain continuity ahead of such events."
The analysis uses the current Middle East crisis as its central case study, noting that Gulf hubs carry roughly 14 percent of global transit traffic. The report models three scenarios for how the situation could shape travel demand: If the ceasefire holds, global travel grows about 6 percent in 2026. If hostilities resume, it falls about 1 percent. Under sustained disruption, it declines about 3 percent and remains weak into 2027. Across all three pathways, the report concludes that recovery hinges less on the crisis itself than on how quickly confidence, connectivity, and affordability can be restored.
Traveler confidence, the report warns, now moves faster than travelers themselves. In 2025, viral rumors of a megaquake drove booking declines of up to 50 percent from some East Asian markets despite no scientific basis for the claims — evidence that misinformation can depress demand before any physical disruption occurs.
The broader trend line is encouraging: Average recovery times have fallen from roughly 24 months in the early 2000s to 10 to 12 months today. Increasingly complex, multi-country disruptions, however, are beginning to slow that progress.
The report points to Saudi Arabia as an example of preparation translating into measurable resilience. The kingdom welcomed 37.2 million tourists in the first quarter of 2026, an 8 percent year-over-year increase despite regional volatility, and reached its 100 million annual-visitor target seven years early — results the report attributes to diversification under Saudi Vision 2030.
"Global tourism has proven remarkably resilient, reaching a record 1.52 billion international arrivals in 2025 despite a decade defined by natural and man-made disasters," said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics. "The lesson learned is that resilience can be built before disruption occurs, in the actions destinations take to prepare. In a world that no longer resets between crises, preparedness is becoming a core measure of competitiveness."
The full report is available now at www.TOURISE.com.
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